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National claimant count falls again in July but the decline is
tailing off – RDA economist blog
11 August 2010
Labour market statistics released today show a further fall in
the national claimant count, extending the run of falls to six
months. However, with each successive months these falls have been
getting smaller and the latest is only 3,800 compared to falls of
30,000 to 40,000 earlier in the year. This adds to growing evidence
that the second quarter ended weaker than it started and the
likelihood is that economic growth going into the second half of
2010 will not be strong enough to sustain any improvement in the
jobs market.
Data from the Labour Force Survey for the three months to the
end of June shows that employment increased by 184,000 compared to
the previous three months. This compares to a reported increase of
160,000 for the three months to May, so most of the gain had
already been reported. The fact that the majority of the additional
jobs have been part-time means that the impact on the jobs shortage
is less than the headline numbers might suggest. Meanwhile the
number who have been unemployed for more than twelve months
continues to rise, reaching the highest figure since March 1997.
This is indicative of the emerging problem of entrenched
unemployment wherein being unemployed for a long period makes
returning to work more challenging, even when new job opportunities
are available.
The data for the South West shows a stronger second quarter jobs
performance with 32,000 additional people in employment compared to
the previous three months. However, there was only a marginal fall
in total unemployment so this appears to be a partial reversal of
the earlier movement of people from employment to inactivity rather
than to unemployment. As with the national picture, the claimant
count in the region fell again in July but this fall was marginal
at only 300 compared to recent monthly drops of 2,000 to 3,000.
Overall the South West has a claimant rate of 3.0% and an
unemployment rate of 6.1% which are the lowest rates for the UK
regions.
Donald Barr
Economics and Evidence Manager
South West Regional Development Agency / South West Observatory
Economy Module
Notes to editors
The Economy Module of the South West Observatory offers a
reliable, up-to-date source and analysis of regional and local
economic information. The research and intelligence published on
the Economy Module website is provided free of charge as a “public
good”, thanks to the valued sponsorship of the South West Regional
Development Agency.
http://economy.swo.org.uk